Will India’s coronavirus curve flatten by mid-May?

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A 21-day nationwide lockdown in India was imposed on April 25 to contain the spread of coronavirus. The lockdown was later extended till May 3 in view of the rising cases of Covid-19 that were reported from various parts of India.

It has been a month since the country is in a lockdown, which has halted the economic activity in India and left many jobless, the question which has now been asked is if it has been effective and will India’s coronavirus curve will flatten by mid-May.

Analysis to this effect has been done by the health experts, studying the projections of the rising cases of coronavirus before and after the lockdown. The graph shows a new, cumulative, and doubling rate of coronavirus cases till May 16.

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‘LOCKDOWN DECISION TIMELY, CURVE HAS BEGIN TO FLATTEN’

“Decision of lockdown was timely, the curve has begun to flatten. The nation has shown that lockdown has been effective, saving lives, containing Covid-19 infection and slowing down doubling rate. We need to build on these gains,” Dr VK Paul, a retired professor at AIIMS, Delhi, and member (Health) at Niti Aayog, said.

Even as the number of new cases touched more than 23,000 on April 24, and the cumulative new cases per day in the country stood at 1,684 per day, the projection shows a trend that moves in the downward curve to zero till May 16.

The government informed that the doubling rate stood at 8.6 as on April 24 and was projected to be at 10 in the next few days. “We have also seen projections tell us that it may reach 14 days in coming time,” Dr Paul said.

India’s top health policy experts rallied in the favour of the lockdown on Friday citing several analyses.

Without the travel bans, lockdown, and other containment measures, India would have 8,51,505 Covid-19 patients between March 21 and April 23, said the data presented by the Indian government on Friday.

In another graph, Dr Paul showed that India would have 73,400 Covid-19 cases between March 25 and April 23 if the average daily growth of such patients was 16 per cent as seen between March 25 and April 6.

However, a lower number has illustrated the impacts of containment measures India undertook to contain the spread of the virus.

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About the author: Sohom Das
Founder of Tuccho.

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